Author: William P. Curtis
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Government publications
Languages : en
Pages : 64
Book Description
Author: William P. Curtis
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Government publications
Languages : en
Pages : 64
Book Description
Author: Mr.Tao Wu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1463931816
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 42
Book Description
We study the effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S. economy combining narrative and quantitative approaches. After examining daily oil-related events since 1984, we classify them into various event types. We then develop measures of exogenous shocks that avoid endogeneity and predictability concerns. Estimation results indicate that oil-price shocks have had substantial and statistically significant effects during the last 25 years. In contrast, traditional VAR approaches imply much weaker and insignificant effects for the same period. This discrepancy stems from the inability of VARs to separate exogenous oil-supply shocks from endogenous oil-price fluctuations driven by changes in oil demand.
Author: Mr.Kamiar Mohaddes
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513509845
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 35
Book Description
This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achieved through imposing dynamic sign restrictions on the impulse responses of the model. The results show that there are considerable heterogeneities in the responses of different countries to a U.S. supply-driven oil price shock, with real GDP increasing in both advanced and emerging market oil-importing economies, output declining in commodity exporters, inflation falling in most countries, and equity prices rising worldwide. Overall, our results suggest that following the U.S. oil revolution, with oil prices falling by 51 percent in the first year, global growth increases by 0.16 to 0.37 percentage points. This is mainly due to an increase in spending by oil importing countries, which exceeds the decline in expenditure by oil exporters.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451866747
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 41
Book Description
This paper studies the effects of demand and supply shocks in the global crude oil market on several measures of countries' external balance, including the oil and non-oil trade balances, the current account, and changes in net foreign assets (NFA) during 1975-2004. We explicitly take a global perspective. In addition to the U.S., the Euro area and Japan, we consider a number of country groups including oil exporters and middle-income oil-importing economies. We find that the effect of oil shocks on the merchandise trade balance and the current account, which depending on the source of the shock can be large, depends critically on the response of the nonoil trade balance, and differs systematically between the U.S. and other oil importing countries. Using the Lane-Milesi-Ferretti NFA data set, we document the presence of large and systematic (if not always statistically significant) valuation effects in response to oil shocks, not only for the U.S., but also for other oil-importing economies and for oil exporters. Our estimates suggest that increased international financial integration will tend to cushion the effect of oil shocks on NFA positions for major oil exporters and the U.S., but may amplify it for other oil importers.
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Power resources
Languages : en
Pages : 598
Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Power resources
Languages : en
Pages : 462
Book Description
Author: United States. Energy Information Administration
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 80
Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Government publications
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Fossil fuels
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Government publications
Languages : en
Pages : 1054
Book Description
